Will the A380 return?

[tae]

Apparently some airlines are looking back to the A380 as travel demand is going up
This summer might be the first "maskless" summer outside the US, as many countries have already vaccinated most of their populations specially in Asia.

The A380 is a natural gas guzzler, as filling it up with passengers is not exactly easy. So even if in theory it could be as efficient as a 787 it's usually expensive to operate. That said, some other costs must be saved, for instance landing fees and pilot's salaries.

As much as I disliked the A380 I am sort of happy to see it back in the air. If everything is in shortage (pilots, landing slots, planes, support personnel, gasoline) it might make sense to fly one huge thing rather than three or two small ones.

[ItalianJobR53]

@tae pretty sure there are a couple of A380 already back in service

[tae]

@ItalianJobR53 Lufthansa is looking at returning seven to service according to a bloomberg article

[ItalianJobR53]

@tae https://airwaysmag.com/british-airways-bring-a380/
Seems like some are back in service, BA is also planning on bringing em back into service

[tae]

@ItalianJobR53 Those are the A380s I photographed in madrid!

https://opposite-lock.com/topic/19642/can-you-fit-a-billion-dollar-promise-in-a-single-picture?_=1655728041532

[ttyymmnn]

@tae

Reports of the 380's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

[tae]

@ttyymmnn I guess I was wrong all those years ago.

[ttyymmnn]

@tae said in Will the A380 return?:

@ttyymmnn I guess I was wrong all those years ago.

You and me both.

[pip bip]

@tae probably not in the numbers there were previously

[BicycleBuck]

@tae

A great introduction into the complexities of airlines is Pocket Planes. As a new airline owner, the player buys planes and develops routes for moving people and cargo. Buying access to different airports is a key element and moving up to bigger/faster planes is critical to airline growth. Until the player reaches the point of having planes that are too big to fly efficiently given the number of passengers and amount of cargo. Bigger is better! Not always. As the player advances, the game shines a light on how our airlines work with hubs at larger airports and secondary routes serving smaller airports. It also becomes a total time suck as the player has to manage individual flights so that passengers can get from the hubs to their final destinations. Highly recommended.

[tae]

@BicycleBuck I used to have that game. I also played airline manager on facebook.

I never actually bought the A380... I mostly had A330s and B777

[facw]

@ttyymmnn I'm not so sure... Extremely new planes being scrapped is not a good sign. They might be flying them again as demand picks up, but it still seems like they are eager to replace them (it probably helps the A380 that the 777X, 787, and A350 are all having having some issues)

[ttyymmnn]

@facw said in Will the A380 return?:

@ttyymmnn I'm not so sure... Extremely new planes being scrapped is not a good sign. They might be flying them again as demand picks up, but it still seems like they are eager to replace them (it probably helps the A380 that the 777X, 787, and A350 are all having having some issues)

Agreed, but many thought they would never come out of mothballs after the pandemic.

[gmporschenut also a fan of hondas]

@tae I’m not sure how fuel prices will play in routing, but there were a couple interesting video of the airline system bifurcating between a hub and spoke and direct flights. With the direct routing becoming the more premium experience.

[ranwhenparked]

@tae there was a cargo variant offered early in the A3XX development process, but it was cancelled to focus on the passenger version, the main hurdle, as I understand it, was being able to properly utilize both decks (really, 3 decks, including the normal hold), given total payload capacity and weight loading on the decks themselves. Wonder if it's worth anyone revisiting as an aftermarket conversion, given that nearly new examples have been sold for scrap value?

[tae]

@ranwhenparked I hope the A380 is completely fly by wire because one of the biggest problems I can think of is that the cockpit is in a very unfortunate position for the typical cargo door. Plus, those four engines just make it too expensive for anything.

[facw]

@ranwhenparked IIRC, the top deck on the A380 isn't really strong enough for cargo which makes conversions unpractical (especially since Airbus never made a freighter, so you can't just upgrade to freighter spec)

@tae The 747F's big front loading door is an advantage, but not strictly necessary. There are plenty of other freighters that just have side loading doors. Though IIRC, the A380 is indeed completely fly-by-wire.

[GrindIntoSecond]

@tae The 380 was not a moneymaker. It cost more to operate than thought. maintenance, etc. But now they can charge a bunch for tickets because of demand, regardless of fuel costing, it might make money now. But with all things being in fluctuation, demand being a backlash from lockdowns, etc. I definitely think restarting its production is not possible, but working what you have on hand at the moment is feasible until the next issue arises.

[tae]

@facw I think that perhaps very voluminous cargo that needs to be shipped in a hurry could be a niche use for the A380. Think F1 teams, for instance. Or parts for critical infrastructure, etc. But that's certainly a stretch and not something a B747F couldn't do almost as well.

[tae]

@GrindIntoSecond the biggest problem with the A380 was that it wasn't given the time to mature like the B747 did. The financial crisis probably made it less appealing for companies. If the A380 had launched in the 90s I bet it would've been more widespread and many issues would've been solved in time for it to be "useful" like the 747-8 is.

[facw]

@tae Yeah, that's the problem, there are plenty of planes that can fill that niche without needing expensive conversion, including R&D for a nose door, which as you say would require relocating the cockpit.

Even from Airbus, for the right price you can rent the Beluga/BelugaXL:

I'm sure they'd build one for you for the right price as well.

[Roadkilled]

@tae said in Will the A380 return?:

landing slots

It's not as much of an advantage for landing slots as it might seem. The A380 creates more wake turbulence, so the rules for following distance are greater. There is a longer delay required before another plane is allowed land behind an A380.

One big advantage is the ratio of passengers to pilots, as you mentioned. There is a bit of a pilot shortage right now, so airlines are happier if they can move more passengers with fewer pilots. As long as they have pilots qualified for the A380, it makes sense to use them.

[ranwhenparked]

@GrindIntoSecond and the last one was delivered over 7 months ago now, and suppliers and subcontractors were already winding down production for a few years leading up to that, I'd figure a large amount of the supply chain for production isn't in place anymore, would be a big headache and probably a several year process to try and restart, and who knows what the market will even look like by then

[tae]

@Roadkilled welp. I wished the A380 at least took up the mantle for short range high density flights, rather than four A320s one A380 but it also seems very unlikely.

I've been reading and it seems like it would be a different story if it had two engines rather than four

[FourMalibus]

@tae I really hope the 747 will return. I reaIlly really want to fly in a 747. It's so much more beautiful than the 380. I'm not sure how the economics works out for both of them, but I don't care. Give me the 747.