Probability often gets a bad rap

[AestheticsInMotion]

Unjustly, I say! Here's a fun one that some of you may be acquainted with—

If every member of the Hyphen were to shuffle their own standard deck of cards, what are the odds that two decks would be arranged exactly the same?

How many times would we have to shuffle before we could expect to repeat a 52 card arrangement?

Okay, now watch the video.

[EssExTee]

@AestheticsInMotion On the other end of things, if you have a group of just 23 people the chance of two sharing a birthday is over 50%

[AestheticsInMotion]

@EssExTee I'm pretty sure this is fairly straightforward to calculate but my brain refuses to process the problem. I'll have to look at it in the morning!

[Tekamul]

@AestheticsInMotion It's not straight forward at all, unfortunately. Birthdays aren't random. They're heavily guided by both physical variables (menstrual cycles move all over due to external influences) and societal (physicians advance or delay induction and cesareans to align with personal schedules). Then there's the whole honeymoon season, valentines day, 9 months after a snow storm, etc. There's a lot of clustering.
Because of that, birthdays align more frequently than probabilities would predict.

[SilentbutnotreallyDeadly]

@AestheticsInMotion
The probability of the average Opponaut not wanting to think overly much about probability is likely far from highly improbable.

[Wrong Wheel Drive]

@AestheticsInMotion all I know off the top of my head that the probability is REALLY low. And after watching the video, it's about what I expected! I enjoy the way it morphed into why life is special at the end. Good way to start my day.

[AestheticsInMotion]

@Tekamul oh sure, but for the basis of the above problem each day is weighted the same.